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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."